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Modelling & Decision Instrument

During the COVID-19 pandemic, travel restrictions and other crossborder measures are being applied to an unprecedented degree by every country in the world.  However, there is much variation in what and how these measures are being used.  As Peterson et al. (2020) write,

“How can we get better science and evidence into decisions about lifting these restrictions as the outbreak resolves…[P]romoting a risk-based approach…[that] might vary from country to country could provide a way forward but it would need a degree of international coordination to avoid a random, possibly chaotic, certainly confusing, and probably ineffective process.”

At present, there are few analytical tools available to support these very complex decisions being made in real time with imperfect information.  Building on our current research, we seek to develop modelling methods and a decision instrument to support decision makers on the adoption and lifting of crossborder measures during pandemics.  This decision-making instrument would include support for national governments seeking to balance public health, economic, and social impacts of such measures.

Please note that this phase of the research is currently not funded.  We welcome hearing from interested parties on potential funding to support the development of decision tools to strengthen our response to COVID-19 and future pandemic response.